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SUPERFORECASTING

THE ART AND SCIENCE OF PREDICTION

PHILIP TETLOCK DAN GARDNER

假如我們能大幅改善預測未來的能力？

我們所做的一切皆事涉預測未來後續。不論是買新房或是換工作、設計產品抑或結婚，我們所下的各種決定，在在受到對於未來情勢發展的模糊看法所左右。然而問題是，我們並不善於預測未來。

在一項長達廿年的重大研究中，華頓商學院教授菲利普．泰特洛克藉由這項實驗，向世人證明，那些尋常「專家」對於未來的種種預測，準確率說穿了也不過比瞎猜來得稍微好一些而已。泰特洛克的這項由政府資助的最新研究專案，涵蓋超過百萬件各別預測研究，堪稱史無前例的預測研究錦標賽；而這項實驗更證明，世上的確有人具備真正先見之明。出乎意料的是，這些人不過尋常布衣，從舞者到退休電腦程式設計師，他們對於未來的預測，準確率硬是比那些「預測專家」高出百分之六十之譜。泰特洛克因而將這群人稱之為「終極預測者」。

在「超」書當中，泰特洛克與本書共同作者丹．賈德納兩人，提供讀者獨到見解，讓人們得以自這群菁英預測者身上有所獲益。兩人除了說明終極預測者所用的技巧，當中這些竅門甚至讓他們大勝那群掌握機密資料的專業情報分析師，更提供讀者切實的建議，讓一般人得以受益於這些技巧，不論應用於經商、國際事務抑或日常生活當中，皆能有所助益。

What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?

Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.

In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that even the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who are nonetheless able to predict the future with a 60% greater degree of accuracy than regular forecasters. They are superforecasters.

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group of people. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.

■菲利普．泰特洛克／Philip Tetlock

Philip Tetlock is Leonore Annenberg University Professor of Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of several books on politics and psychology, including Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics and the award-winning Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

■丹．賈德納／Dan Gardner

Dan Gardner is a journalist, author and lecturer. He is the best-selling author of Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway and Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear, which was published in 11 countries and 7 languages. He lives in Ottawa, Canada.

作者：菲利普．泰特洛克／Philip Tetlock & 丹．賈德納／Dan Gardner

版本：UK Edition

規格：精平裝，15.3 x 23.4 x 3 cm，352頁

出版商：Random House Books

出版日期：2015年09月24日

語言：英文

ISBN-13：978-1-847-94714-7

Superforecasting 全新書。

Superforecasting brand new book.

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